Why transformative artificial intelligence is really, really hard to achieve
thegradientpub.substack.com
Why transformative artificial intelligence is really, really hard to achieve
A collection of the best technical, social, and economic arguments
Humans have a good track record of innovation. The mechanization of agriculture, steam engines, electricity, modern medicine, computers, and the internet—these technologies radically changed the world. Still, the trend growth rate of GDP per capita in the world's frontier economy has never exceeded three percent per year.
It is of course possible for growth to accelerate. There was time before growth began, or at least when it was far closer to zero. But the fact that past game-changing technologies have yet to break the three percent threshold gives us a baseline. Only strong evidence should cause us to expect something hugely different. Yet many people are optimistic that artificial intelligence is up to the job ….
Fascinating article, I think the only bit I was a little in disagreement with was the suggestion that “railroads are only a marginal improvement over roads and canals”. I get what they’re saying, but it’s also silly, it’s like saying air conditioning is marginally better than a hand fan.
You simply can’t carry the weight of goods on roads that you can on rail, and while canals can do that, you need the waterways to exist in the first place. I don’t see any canals crossing the continental USA for example. Then there’s speed, many types of goods spoil if they take too long in transit.
Railroads combined with the steam engine were definitely a monumental improvement on anything that came before.
Can you post it on Substack? It’s more convenient if I can listen to it.